IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rif/wpaper/23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consolidation under the Europe’s New Fiscal Rules: Analyzing the Implied Minimum Fiscal Effort

Author

Listed:
  • Kuusi, Tero

Abstract

The new EU fiscal framework builds on several overlapping target measures and convergence rules. Thus, it is not clear how strict goals the framework sets for public finances. In this paper we build a simulation framework that solves the minimum fiscal effort under different assumptions on the initial state of the economy and the expected economic conditions during the consolidation. We then use the model to analyze several fiscal consolidations. We find that Germany, France, Spain and Italy are currently in compliance with our measure of minimum fiscal effort, but Spain is at risk of falling behind the required pace of consolidation in the near future. As a historical reference we revisit the Finnish Great Depression of the early 1990s. We find that the consolidation was in compliance with the fiscal rules, but during the first years of the consolidation the difficulty of detecting the phase of the business cycle could have considerably increased the restrictiveness of the rules. Finally, we address the looming sustainability gap in the Finnish public finances that reflects the cost of aging population. Under no policy change the required correction is found to become substantial by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuusi, Tero, 2014. "Consolidation under the Europe’s New Fiscal Rules: Analyzing the Implied Minimum Fiscal Effort," ETLA Working Papers 23, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Working-Papers-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Perotti, 2012. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 307-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sebastian Barnes & Jarmila Botev & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Jan Stráský, 2016. "Europe’s New Fiscal Rules," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 7(1).
    3. Martin Larch & Alessandro Turrini, 2009. "The cyclically-adjusted budget balance in EU fiscal policy making : A love at first sight turned into a mature relationship," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 374, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    5. Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2014. "Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-119.
    6. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity myth": Gain Without Pain?," BIS Working Papers 362, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," Working Papers 430, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Philipp Rother, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximizing debt targets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 638-647, February.
    9. Julia Lendvai & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini, 2011. "From CAB to CAAB? Correcting Indicators of Structural Fiscal Positions for Current Account Imbalances," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 442, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Perotti, Roberto, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Gregory Thwaites, 2006. "Optimal emerging market fiscal policy when trend output growth is unobserved," Bank of England working papers 308, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kuusi, Tero, 2018. "Does the structural budget balance guide fiscal policy pro-cyclically? Evidence from the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s," MPRA Paper 84829, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2017. "Public Attitudes toward Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Representative German Population Survey," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 42-69, February.
    3. Manfred Overhaus & Ulrich Maas & Aiginger. Karl & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2012. "A Way Out of Debt Budgets: Is it Possible to Repay Public Debt?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(05), pages 03-14, March.
    4. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    5. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014. "Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
    6. Daniel Heymann & Axel Leijonhufvud, 2014. "Multiple Choices: Economic Policies in Crisis," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Daniel Heymann (ed.), Life After Debt, chapter 5, pages 281-308, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    8. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Endogenous fluctuations and the balanced-budget rule: taxes versus spending-based adjustment," Post-Print halshs-02318369, HAL.
    9. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    10. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/003, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Riccardo Fiorentini & Guido Montani, 2013. "Beyond Austerity A European Recovery Policy Is Feasible," Working Papers 06/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    13. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal variables: Only a strong growth plan can sustain the Greek austerity programs - Evidence from simultaneous and structural models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Osti, Davide, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from Southern European Regions," MPRA Paper 79892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Roberto Tamborini, 2012. "Market opinions, fundamentals and the euro-sovereign debt crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1210, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    16. Francesco Saraceno, 2018. "The End of the Consensus? The Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 319-334.
    17. Banerjee, Ryan & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2019. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 420-436.
    18. Júlia Király, 2020. "Hungary and Other Emerging EU Countries in the Financial Storm," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, Springer, number 978-3-030-49544-2, June.
    19. Sebastian Dullien, 2012. "Is new always better than old? On the treatment of fiscal policy in Keynesian models," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 5-23.
    20. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etlaafi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.