Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecast Pretesting and Correction

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ilmakunnas, Pekka

Abstract

Sometimes it is suggested that end users can improve forecasts by some kind of corrections. At least implicitly, the idea is to use such corrections if the forecasts appear too inaccurate by some criteria. Alternative forecasts can be defined based on whether a preliminary test of forecast usefulness and a subsequent correction has been made. The mean squared errors as some such forecasts are studied using some recent results on inequality pretesting. Uncorrected forecasts are shown to perform reasonably well. The optimal minimax regret critical values for the preliminary tests are fairly high, implying that the hypothesis of forecast usefulness mostly should be accepted and uncorrected forecasts used.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/dp324.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy in its series Discussion Papers with number 324.

as in new window
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 28 May 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:324

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Lönnrotinkatu 4 B, FIN-00120 HELSINKI
Phone: +358 (0)9 609 900
Fax: +358 (0)9 601 753
Web page: http://www.etla.fi/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ilmakunnas, Pekka, 1996. "Use of macroeconomic forecasts in corporate forecasting: a note on aggregation problems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-388, September.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.