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The Accuracy of Valuations - Expectation and Reality

Author

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  • Gerald Blundell
  • Charles Ward

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

Abstract

The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald Blundell & Charles Ward, 2008. "The Accuracy of Valuations - Expectation and Reality," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-14, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2008-14
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    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/1408.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Neil Crosby & Anthony Lavers & John Murdoch, 1998. "Property valuation variation and the 'margin of error' in the UK," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 305-330, January.
    2. Richard Dietrich, J. & Harris, Mary S. & MullerIII, Karl A., 2000. "The reliability of investment property fair value estimates," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 125-158, October.

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