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Consumption and Permanent Income: The Australian Case

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Author Info
Warwick McKibbin
Anthony Richards

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Abstract

The share market crash of October 1987 has raised the question of the effect of a change in share prices on real consumption expenditure. This paper examines this issue by examining the role of permanent income or wealth in explaining the behaviour of aggregate consumption expenditure in Australia. Two approaches to testing the permanent income hypothesis are used. The first applies extensions to the method proposed by Hall (1978) and the second follows Hayashi (1981). Both approaches, using a variety of tests, give strong support for the permanent income hypothesis. In testing the relative explanatory power of permanent versus current income, we find that between 50 per cent and 70 per cent of consumption expenditure is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis and the remainder is explained by current income. It is argued in the paper that although consumption expenditure seemed unaffected by the share market crash, this outcome is still consistent with the permanent income hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp8808.

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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp8808

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  1. Steven Morling & Robert Subbaraman, 1995. "Superannuation and Saving," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9511, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Wealth Effetcs on Consumption: Evidence from the euro area," NIPE Working Papers 12/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Guy Debelle & Bruce Preston, 1995. "Consumption, Investment and International Linkages," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9512, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Wealth Effects in Emerging Market Economies," NIPE Working Papers 4/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gianni La Cava & John Simon, 2003. "A Tale of Two Surveys: Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.


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