IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/94638.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terrorist attacks and public approval and confidence in the Russian president: Evidence from time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Fedotenkov, Igor

Abstract

In this paper we apply time series analysis to examine weekly data of Vladimir Putin’s approval and confidence ratings and their dependence on terrorist attacks. We find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no mortal casualties in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four mortal casualties, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. The effects of terrorist attacks on the confidence rating are indistinguishable from the statistical noise. Furthermore, we control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program `Direct Line with V. Putin', address to the Federal Assembly and a large annual conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with `Direct Line' having the least effect. Only the large annual conference has a significant positive impact on respondents’ confidence in Putin.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor, 2019. "Terrorist attacks and public approval and confidence in the Russian president: Evidence from time series analysis," MPRA Paper 94638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94638/1/MPRA_paper_94638.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Treisman, 2014. "Putin's popularity since 2010: why did support for the Kremlin plunge, then stabilize?," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 370-388, September.
    2. Daniel Treisman, 2011. "Presidential Popularity in a Hybrid Regime: Russia under Yeltsin and Putin," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 590-609, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anastasia Kazun & Kseniia Semykina, 2018. "Presidential Elections 2018: The Struggle of Putin and Navalny for a Media Agenda," HSE Working papers WP BRP 62/PS/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. de Vries Mecheva, M., 2016. "On President Putin’s popularity: Evidence from survey experiment on the streets of Moscow," ISS Working Papers - General Series 624, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8lt2edmul9geov3cf3fqf7h92 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Maxim Ananiev & Sergei Guriev, 2014. "The Effect of Income on Trust: the Evidence from 2009 Crisis in Russia," Working Papers hal-03429914, HAL.
    5. Peeva, Aleksandra, 2019. "Did sanctions help Putin?," Discussion Papers 2019/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Anastasia Kazun, 2016. "Rally-Around-The-Flag and the Media: Case of Economic Sanctions in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 33/PS/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Maxim Ananiev & Sergei Guriev, 2014. "The Effect of Income on Trust: the Evidence from 2009 Crisis in Russia," Working Papers hal-03429914, HAL.
    8. Mikhail A Alexseev & Henry E Hale, 2020. "Crimea come what may: Do economic sanctions backfire politically?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 344-359, March.
    9. Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2022. "Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9974, CESifo.
    10. Frye, Timothy & Borisova, Ekaterina, 2016. "Elections, protest and trust in government: A natural experiment from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Margit Bussmann & Natalia Iost, 2024. "Presidential popularity and international crises: an assessment of the rally-‘round-the-flag effect in Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 105-118, March.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Israel Marques & Eugenia Nazrullaeva & Andrei Yakovlev, 2011. "From Competition to Dominance: Political Determinations of Federal Transfers in Russian Federation," HSE Working papers WP BRP 12/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    14. Alexander Boca Saravia & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Presidential approval in Peru: an empirical analysis using a fractionally cointegrated VAR," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1973-2010, August.
    15. Steven V. Miller, 2017. "Individual-level expectations of executive authority under territorial threat," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(5), pages 526-545, September.
    16. Vasilyeva, Olga & Libman, Alexander, 2020. "Varieties of authoritarianism matter: Elite fragmentation, natural resources and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Breyel, Corinna & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2016. "Foreign agents? Natural resources & the political economy of civil society," Discussion Papers 2016/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    18. Alexander Libman, 2015. "Words or deeds: what matters? On the role of symbolic action in political decentralization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 801-838, November.
    19. Gurvich, Evsey, 2013. "7-32," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 7-32, June.
    20. Israel Marques II & Eugenia Nazrullaeva & Andrei Yakovlev, 2016. "Substituting Distribution for Growth: The Political Logic of Intergovernmental Transfers in the Russian Federation," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 23-54, March.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/18morovaof8fdbvqtbkas8cvhm is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Scott Radnitz, 2022. "Perceived threats and the trade-off between security and human rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 367-381, May.
    23. Ali Burak Güven, 2016. "Rethinking Development Space in Emerging Countries: Turkey's Conservative Countermovement," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 47(5), pages 995-1024, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorist attack; Russia; Putin; approval ratings; confidence ratings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • Y8 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.