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Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight

Author

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  • Verico, Kiki

Abstract

One of the most important variables in the emerging economies like Indonesia is the stability of the exchange rate. Unstable exchange rates make it almost impossible for all business ventures to plan the business. The higher the depreciation of the Rupiah the higher the inflation rate and this will decrease people's purchasing power. In the balance of payments, the stability of the exchange rate and capital account are strongly influenced by the current account balance. A study found that in Indonesia, in the long run (Johansen Procedure) Indonesia current account balance affects the real exchange rate while in the short run (VECM) it affects the nominal exchange rate. The study also found that in the current account balance the one that affecting the exchange rate is the trade balance. Indonesia's trade balance relies on a surplus of trade in goods, especially agricultural products, petroleum and gas. The price of products in the primary sector is very vulnerable because of the volatility of primary products due to that of world’s oil and gas price. Indonesia's current account balance is highly dependent on manufacturing product trade. Another study found that in real-world, manufacturing trade influences more the capital flows than vice versa. Therefore, in order to maintain a positive long-term economic growth and stable exchange rate, Indonesia must increase its trade competitiveness, especially in the manufacturing sector. This paper will explore the challenges and opportunities of international trade in Indonesia towards 2030 and afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Verico, Kiki, 2017. "Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight," MPRA Paper 79530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79530
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79665/1/MPRA_paper_79665.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    2. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts; A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 16/02, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiki Verico, 2021. "Global Pandemic 2020: Indonesia’s Output Gap and Middle-Income Trap Scenario," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202157, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
    2. Kiki Verico, 2018. "Does Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Work Well Towards the Political Year?," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 201819, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Apr 2018.
    3. Verico, Kiki, 2018. "Does Indonesia’s macroeconomic work well towards the political year?," MPRA Paper 86164, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run foresight; international trade; 2030 and beyond; Indonesia; Indonesia economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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