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The dynamics of poverty in Mexico: A multinomial logistic regression analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Garza-Rodriguez, Jorge
  • Fernández-Ramos, Jennifer
  • Garcia-Guerra, Ana K.
  • Morales-Ramirez, Gabriela

Abstract

Using panel data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, this paper estimates a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze the dynamics of chronic and transient poverty in Mexico. Based on the spells approach, transition matrices are constructed to observe households’ entry into and exit from poverty and multinomial logistic regression is used to analyze which factors explain the dynamics of poverty in Mexico. It was found that 36% of households are chronically poor and 64% are transiently poor. Also, we found that the variables directly related to chronic poverty are: belonging to an ethnic group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. On the other hand, it was found that having more education, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are positively related with the probability of escaping poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Garza-Rodriguez, Jorge & Fernández-Ramos, Jennifer & Garcia-Guerra, Ana K. & Morales-Ramirez, Gabriela, 2015. "The dynamics of poverty in Mexico: A multinomial logistic regression analysis," MPRA Paper 77743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
    2. Rolf Aaberge & Magne Mogstad, 2006. "On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty," ICER Working Papers 36-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Patricia Justino & Julie Litchfield & Hung Thai Pham, 2008. "Poverty Dynamics During Trade Reform: Evidence From Rural Vietnam," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 166-192, June.
    4. Nayoung Lee & Geert Ridder & John Strauss, 2017. "Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 37-55, January.
    5. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Baulch, Bob & Masset, Edoardo, 2003. "Do Monetary and Nonmonetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 441-453, March.
    7. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Transient Poverty in Postreform Rural China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 338-357, June.
    8. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez & Martha Gonzalez-Martinez & Marcela Quiroga-Lozano & Luz Solis-Santoyo & Gabriela Yarto-Weber, 2010. "“Chronic and transient poverty in Mexico: 2002-2005”," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 3188-3200.
    9. Mckay, Andrew & Lawson, David, 2003. "Assessing the Extent and Nature of Chronic Poverty in Low Income Countries: Issues and Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 425-439, March.
    10. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4743 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bob Baulch & Vu Hoang Dat, 2011. "Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam, 2002 to 2006," Chapters, in: Bob Baulch (ed.), Why Poverty Persists, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lanjouw Peter, 2020. "Income mobility in the developing world: Recent approaches and evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Himanshu & Peter Lanjouw, 2020. "Income mobility in the developing world: Recent approaches and evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; Poverty; Chronic poverty; Transient poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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