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Tradable measure of risk

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  • Pospisil, Libor
  • Vecer, Jan
  • Xu, Mingxin

Abstract

The main idea of this paper is to introduce Tradeable Measures of Risk as an objective and model independent way of measuring risk. The present methods of risk measurement, such as the standard Value-at-Risk supported by BASEL II, are based on subjective assumptions of future returns. Therefore two different models applied to the same portfolio can lead to different values of a risk measure. In order to achieve an objective measurement of risk, we introduce a concept of {\em Realized Risk} which we define as a directly observable function of realized returns. Predictive assessment of the future risk is given by {\em Tradeable Measure of Risk} -- the price of a financial contract which pays its holder the Realized Risk for a certain period. Our definition of the Realized Risk payoff involves a Weighted Average of Ordered Returns, with the following special cases: the worst return, the empirical Value-at-Risk, and the empirical mean shortfall. When Tradeable Measures of Risk of this type are priced and quoted by the market (even of an experimental type), one does not need a model to calculate values of a risk measure since it will be observed directly from the market. We use an option pricing approach to obtain dynamic pricing formulas for these contracts, where we make an assumption about the distribution of the returns. We also discuss the connection between Tradeable Measures of Risk and the axiomatic definition of Coherent Measures of Risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5059.

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Date of creation: 27 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5059

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Keywords: dynamic risk measure; conditional value-at-risk; shortfall;

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References

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  1. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
  2. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  3. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
  4. Peter Carr & Hélyette Geman & Dilip Madan & Marc Yor, 2005. "Pricing options on realized variance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 453-475, October.
  5. Patrick Cheridito & Freddy Delbaen & Michael Kupper, 2006. "Coherent and convex monetary risk measures for unbounded càdlàg processes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 427-448, September.
  6. Wang, Shaun S. & Young, Virginia R. & Panjer, Harry H., 1997. "Axiomatic characterization of insurance prices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 173-183, November.
  7. Marco Frittelli & Giacomo Scandolo, 2006. "Risk Measures And Capital Requirements For Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 589-612.
  8. Miura, Ryozo, 1992. "A Note on Look-Back Options Based on Order Statistics," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 27(1), pages 15-28, November.
  9. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
  10. Robert Jarrow, 2002. "Put Option Premiums and Coherent Risk Measures," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 135-142.
  11. Frank Riedel, 2003. "Dynamic Coherent Risk Measures," Working Papers 03004, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
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