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The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

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  • Bazhanov, Andrei
  • Vyscrebentsev, Alexei

Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Bazhanov, Andrei & Vyscrebentsev, Alexei, 2005. "The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction," MPRA Paper 479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15117/1/MPRA_paper_15117.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreeva, Anastasiya & Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Сценарии Перехода К Устойчивым Темпам Добычи Нефти В России [Scenarios of transition to sustainable oil extraction in Russia]," MPRA Paper 5343, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hubbert’s curve; Durbin-Watson statistic;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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