The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

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The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

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Bazhanov, Andrei
Vyscrebentsev, Alexei

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Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 479.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-12-04 (All new papers)
NEP-CIS-2006-12-04 (Confederation of Independent States)
NEP-ENE-2006-12-04 (Energy Economics)
NEP-FOR-2006-12-04 (Forecasting)

References listed on IDEAS
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Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Hartwick, 1976. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 220, Queen's University, Department of Economics.

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Andreeva, Anastasiya & Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Сценарии Перехода К Устойчивым Темпам Добычи Нефти В России
[Scenarios of transition to sustainable oil extraction in Russia]," MPRA Paper 5343, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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