The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction
AbstractOur approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 479.
Date of creation: 18 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Hubbert’s curve; Durbin-Watson statistic;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2006-12-04 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2006-12-04 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-12-04 (Forecasting)
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