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Адекватность Кривых Хабберта Для Прогнозирования Темпов Добычи Нефти
[The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction]

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Author Info
Bazhanov, Andrei
Vyscrebentsev, Alexei

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Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Using alternate criteria, we compare the dynamics of oil extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We show that this approach provides a model that is inconsistent with the reserve estimates, and so it cannot be used as an accurate tool for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/479/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15117/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 479.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479

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Related research
Keywords: Hubbert’s curve; Durbin-Watson statistic;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andreeva, Anastasiya & Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Сценарии Перехода К Устойчивым Темпам Добычи Нефти В России
    [Scenarios of transition to sustainable oil extraction in Russia]    ," MPRA Paper 5343, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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