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What is the Shape of Real Exchange Rate Nonlinearity?

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  • Norman, Stephen
  • Phillips, Kerk L.

Abstract

Evidence that real exchange rate dynamics can be described using models which exhibit nonlinear mean reversion has been mounting over the past several years. This paper attempts to better understand the shape of real exchange rate nonlinearity through the use of the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model and the newly proposed skewed generalized error (SGE) transition function. The advantage of this transition function is that is nests popularly used transition functions through simple parameter constraints. This allows the use of nested model selection tests. It is shown that more flexible transition functions are preferred in many cases over the commonly used exponential transition function. The results suggest that most of the real exchange rates studied in this paper are better described by discrete threshold models rather than STAR models.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23504/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23504.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23504

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Keywords: exchange rate dynamics; mean reversion;

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  1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
  3. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
  4. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
  5. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Theodossiou, Panayiotis & McDonald, James B. & Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Some Flexible Parametric Models for Partially Adaptive Estimators of Econometric Models," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  8. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Bensalem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," Post-Print hal-00685810, HAL.
  9. Walter Enders & Selahattin Dibooglu, 2001. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 433-445, October.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:23:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
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