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Jauna produkta ievešanas tirgū modelēšana, izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi
[Modelling of the new product introduction into market, using system dynamics method]


Author Info

  • Skribans, Valerijs


System dynamics methods have found a wider application in decision making recently .The aim of the present paper is to substantiate the application of the possibilities of system dynamics methods, by modelling innovations and the introduction of new products into the market. The research presents the model of forecasting the mobile telephone market in Latvia; it gives the comparison of the software of system dynamics modelling. The simulation of the mobile telephone market has been worked out and the potential market volume has been determined. The actual market dynamics has been compared to the simulation results and the factors which influence the market volume have been investigated and suggestions for analysing these factors have been provided. The author presents the comparison of the Bass Diffusion Model modification with that of the Sterman Model for repeated purchases, with modification being adjusted for the Latvian mobile telephone market. The author admits that each mobile telephone purchased becomes obsolete after exceeding the average service time. The paper also gives an analysis of J. Sterman`s approach, who considers that product obsolescence is directly proportional to the number of buyers (mobile phone users) and inversely proportional to the product average service time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16354.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in RTU Zinātniskie raksti ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS.ECONOM(2008): pp. 99-105
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16354

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Keywords: sistēmdinamika; modelēšana; imitācija; inovācijas; jauns produkts; mobilo telefonu tirgus; mārketings;

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Cited by:
  1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Разработка Модели Макроэкономического Равновесия С Использованием Метода Системной Динамики
    [Development of Macroe
    ," MPRA Paper 22716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2011. "Разработка Модели Системной Динамики Для Энергетического Сектора В Латвии
    [Development of system dynamics model for the energy secto
    ," MPRA Paper 39251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Kreditēšanas apjoma modelēšana izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi
    [The system dynamic method using for crediting volume modelling]
    ," MPRA Paper 26108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Latvijas energosektora sistēmdinamikas prognozēšanas modeļa izstrāde
    [System dynamic model development for the Latvian energy sector]
    ," MPRA Paper 23666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Skribans, Valerijs, 2011. "Makroekonomiskā aprites modeļa izstrādāšana izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi
    [Development of System Dynamics Macroeconomic Equilibrium Model]
    ," MPRA Paper 34357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Investments model development with the system dynamic method," MPRA Paper 27235, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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