FoolWatch - Further Discussion of Econometric Analysis Undertaken By ACCC
AbstractUsing data supplied by InformedSources I find additional flaws in the ACCC analysis of FuelWatch. First, the drop in petrol prices that is so visually convincing in the ACCC chart S1 is in fact an artifact of the method of data construction and can be attributed primarily to increases in prices in Adelaide and Melbourne --- events that had nothing to do with Western Australia or FuelWatch. Second, redoing the analysis using Sydney as the point of reference and adding prices in other cities as explanatory variables lead to results that contradict ACCC findings. First I find that the two best models that I estimate yield the conclusion that Fuelwatch either increased petrol prices in Western Australia by a small amount or had no effect. Third, I find that the entry of Woolworths and Coles into the Western Australian market had the effect of reducing unleaded petrol prices Perth by about 2.67 per cent relative to Sydney.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16048.
Date of creation: 15 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Petrol Pricing; Fuelwatch; Econometrics and public policy; Evidence based policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
- L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harding, Don, 2008. "FoolWatch: A Case study of econometric analysis and evidenced-based-policy making in the Australian Government," MPRA Paper 16041, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Harding, Don, 2008.
"FuelWatch: evidence-based-policy or policy based evidence?,"
16049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Don Harding, 2008. "Fuel Watch: Evidence-Based-Policy Or Policy-Based-Evidence?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(4), pages 315-328, December.
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