Russia’s short-term economic growth has accelerated above its long term trend, defying weak global conditions. In 2007, the economy grew by 8.1 percent on the heels of very high (and perhaps unsustainable) oil prices, robust domestic demand and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Preliminary data indicate an even faster real growth in GDP and industrial production of 8.7 and 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008. Rising inflation and capacity and labor utilization, tightening infrastructure constraints, and real wage increases outpacing productivity gains, however, suggest that the economy is overheating, i.e., aggregate demand is outpacing long-term productive capacity of the economy. Reducing inflation and reinvigorating the remaining structural reforms will be key policy challenges for the new Russian government going forward.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
12435.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General F3 - International Economics - - International Finance P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
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