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Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach

Author

Listed:
  • ANDRIANADY, Josué R.
  • Randriamifidy, Fitiavana M.
  • Ranaivoson, Michel H. P.
  • Steffanie, Thierry Miora

Abstract

This research conducts an in-depth econometric analysis of key economic indicators in Madagascar, with a specific focus on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the USD exchange rate (USD/MGA). Employing the rigorous Box-Jenkins methodology with ARIMAX modeling, we meticulously examine historical trends, model time series data, and provide forecasts for the year 2023. Our analysis notably highlights a projected decline in Madagascar’s GDP for the year 2023, shedding light on the potential repercussions of various factors such as impending presidential elections and ongoing challenges like electricity shortages. These factors have the potential to exert a significant influence on the trajectory of the country’s economy. While ARIMAX models constitute invaluable tools for forecasting, we underscore the necessity of incorporating a more expansive array of econometric methodologies to bolster economic resilience and inform policymaking. This study underscores the critical importance of combining data-driven modeling with a profound understanding of the contextual intricacies that characterize Madagascar’s intricate economic landscape. Moreover, it extends its relevance to other emerging economies facing similar complexities and challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • ANDRIANADY, Josué R. & Randriamifidy, Fitiavana M. & Ranaivoson, Michel H. P. & Steffanie, Thierry Miora, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118712
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118712/1/MPRA_paper_118712.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Xie, 2023. "Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models," IMF Working Papers 2023/045, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andrianady, Josué R., 2023. "Crunching the Numbers: A Comparison of Econometric Models for GDP Forecasting in Madagascar," MPRA Paper 116916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    1. Josué, ANDRIANADY & M. Randriamifidy, Fitiavana & H. P. Ranaivoson, Michel & Miora Steffanie, Thierry, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometrics; ARIMAX modeling; ARIMA modeling; Madagascar; Gross Domestic Product; USD exchange rate; Forecasting; Economic Analysis; Box-Jenkins methodology; Time Series Data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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