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Crunching the Numbers: A Comparison of Econometric Models for GDP Forecasting in Madagascar

Author

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  • Andrianady, Josué R.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of three popular econometric models ARIMA, MIDAS, and VAR for forecasting quarterly GDP in Madagascar. Our analysis reveals that ARIMA provides the most accurate forecasts among the three models, indicating its superiority in predicting the country’s economic performance. However, we also argue that combining multiple models can offer additional benefits for forecasting accuracy and robustness. By leveraging the strengths of each model, such an approach can provide more reliable forecasts and reduce the risk of errors and biases associated with using a single model. Our findings have important implications for policymakers, economists, and investors who rely on GDP forecasts to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments in Madagascar.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrianady, Josué R., 2023. "Crunching the Numbers: A Comparison of Econometric Models for GDP Forecasting in Madagascar," MPRA Paper 116916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116916
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120698/1/MPRA_paper_120698.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Josué, ANDRIANADY & M. Randriamifidy, Fitiavana & H. P. Ranaivoson, Michel & Miora Steffanie, Thierry, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. ANDRIANADY, Josué R. & Randriamifidy, Fitiavana M. & Ranaivoson, Michel H. P. & Steffanie, Thierry Miora, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118712, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Madagascar; Quarterly data; Forecasting; Arima; Var; Midas.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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