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Type I and Type II Error Probabilities in the Courtroom

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  • Kanaya, Shin
  • Taylor, Luke

Abstract

We estimate the likelihood of miscarriages of justice by reframing the problem in the context of misclassified binary choice models. The estimator is based on new nonparametric identification results, for which we provide methods to empirically test the key identifying assumptions and alternative identification schemes for when these checks fail. Blacks are found to have both a higher probability of conviction when innocent and a higher probability of acquittal when guilty, relative to whites. We go on to show that this seemingly contradictory result is, in fact, consistent with a model where both police and judges discriminate against blacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanaya, Shin & Taylor, Luke, 2020. "Type I and Type II Error Probabilities in the Courtroom," MPRA Paper 100217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100217
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100217/1/MPRA_paper_100217.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Miscarriages of justice; Nonparametric identification; misclassification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process

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