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Perú 1990-2021: la causa del “milagro” económico ¿Constitución de 1993 o Superciclo de las materias primas?

Author

Listed:
  • Félix Jiménez

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

  • José Oscátegui

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

  • Marco Arroyo

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

Abstract

Analizando la experiencia de crecimiento económico de Perú entre 1993-2021, este documento muestra: a) metodológicamente, el uso correcto del Método de Control Sintético (SCM); y, b) analíticamente, que el alto crecimiento económico de Perú entre 2002-2016 no tiene ninguna relación con la Constitución Política de 1993 (CP93), sino con el Superciclo de los Precios de las Materias Primas en particular, de los minerales que duró algo más de una década, desde 2002-2003. Nuestros resultados son abiertamente diferentes de los obtenidos por Waldo Mendoza en Constitución y Crecimiento Económico 1993-2021. Además, en consonancia con el papel del superciclo, en este trabajo se analizan las consecuencias del modelo, política y económicamente extractivista, establecido en el Perú desde 1990. JEL Classification-JE: A12, B5, C23, C61, D02, D72, D83, O40, O43

Suggested Citation

  • Félix Jiménez & José Oscátegui & Marco Arroyo, 2023. "Perú 1990-2021: la causa del “milagro” económico ¿Constitución de 1993 o Superciclo de las materias primas?," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-522, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00522
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0522
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    Keywords

    Método de control sintético; Evaluación del impacto de laspolíticas; Modelos de efecto del tratamiento; Crecimiento económico; Economíapolítica; economía institucional.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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