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Default count-based network models for credit contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Arianna Agosto

    (Università di Pavia)

  • Daniel Felix Ahelegbey

    (Università di Pavia)

Abstract

Interconnectedness between economic institution and sectors, already recognised as a trigger of the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, is assuming growing importance in financial systems. In this paper we study contagion effects between corporate sectors using financial network models, in which the significant links are identified through conditional independence testing. While the existing financial network literature is mostly focused on Gaussian processes, our approach is based on discrete data. We indeed test dependence in the conditional mean (and volatility) of default counts in different economic sector estimated from Poisson autoregressive models, and in its shocks. Our empirical application to Italian corporate defaults in the 1996-2018 period reveals evidence of a high inter-sector vulnerability, especially at the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and in the following years. Many contagion effects between corporate sectors are indeed found in the shock component of the default count dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Arianna Agosto & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey, 2020. "Default count-based network models for credit contagion," DEM Working Papers Series 180, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0180
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Xu, Maochao & Su, Jianxi & Zhao, Peng, 2023. "Structural models for fog computing based internet of things architectures with insurance and risk management applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1273-1291.
    2. Joanna Wieprow & Agnieszka Gawlik, 2021. "The Use of Discriminant Analysis to Assess the Risk of Bankruptcy of Enterprises in Crisis Conditions Using the Example of the Tourism Sector in Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial networks; Inter-sector contagion; Poisson autoregressive models; Vector autoregressive models; Conditional Granger causality; PC-algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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