Open-economy Inflation Targeting Policies and Forecast Accuracy
AbstractForecast accuracy in macroeconomics is based on statistical techniques for extrapolating time series. This paper takes a new theoretical route studying the relation between forecast accuracy of macroeconomic variables and alternative monetary policies. Considering optimal policy with model-parameter uncertainty in a small open-economy, the paper shows that Domestic Inflation Targeting (DIT) leads to more forecast accuracy than Consumer Price index Inflation Targeting (CPIIT). Furthermore, forecast accuracy and policy aggressiveness turn out to be inversely related, and the trade-o¤ is more severe under CPIIT. These results are obtained in a New-Keynesian model measuring forecast accuracy by the volatility of simulated fan-charts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management in its series DEM Working Papers Series with number 020.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Multiplicative uncertainty; Markov jump linear quadratic systems; small open-economy; optimal monetary policy; inflation index.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-11-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-11-24 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-11-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-11-24 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alice Albonico).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.