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Shifting the 'goal posts': What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points?

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  • Niven Winchester

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

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    Abstract

    Competition points are awarded in sports events to determine which participants qualify for the playoffs or to identify the champion. We use competition points to measure strength in a prediction model and choose competition points to maximise prediction accuracy. This allows us to determine the allocation of competition points that most appropriately rewards strong teams. Our analysis focuses on Super Rugby as the characteristics of this competition closely match our modelling assumptions. We find that the current allocation of competition points is not optimal and suggest an alternative. Our findings have implications for other competitions.

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    File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_0715.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0715.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2007
    Date of revision: Nov 2007
    Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0715

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    Related research

    Keywords: Competition points; Nonlinear least squares; Sports predictions;

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    1. Zuber, Richard A & Gandar, John M & Bowers, Benny D, 1985. "Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 800-806, August.
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