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Short-Term Indicators: Using Qualitative Indicators to Update Production Indices

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  • Paul Schreyer
  • Corinne Emery
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    Abstract

    Short-term economic indicators play an important role in the assessment of current cyclical situations and in the establishment of forecasts. Broadly, two types of short-term indicators can be distinguished: qualitative indicators, reflecting businessmen’s subjective assessment of the cyclical situation (e.g., production prospects or judgements on orderbooks), and quantitative indicators, reflecting past developments of production or employment. The usefulness of qualitative indicators rests on their reliability to approximate the possible evolution of the quantitative ones. The present document shows the results of a pilot study for six industrial sectors in seven Member countries whereby short-term qualitative indicators are used to “nowcast” a quantitative indicator, the production index. The objective is to enhance the timeliness of short-term industrial statistics through estimation of data points for the most recent periods for which they are not yet available. From the current ... Les indicateurs économiques à court terme jouent un rôle important dans l'appréciation des situations conjoncturelles et dans l'établissement des prévisions. On distingue en général deux types d'indicateurs à court terme : les indicateurs qualitatifs, qui reflètent l'opinion subjective des dirigeants d'entreprises sur la situation conjoncturelle (par exemple, les perspectives de production ou l'appréciation des carnets de commandes), et les indicateurs quantitatifs, qui rendent compte de l'évolution passée de la production ou de l'emploi. L'utilité des indicateurs qualitatifs repose sur leur capacité à anticiper avec fiabilité l'évolution possible des indicateurs quantitatifs. Ce document présente les résultats d'une étude pilote concernant six secteurs industriels dans sept pays Membres, pour laquelle on utilise des indicateurs qualitatifs à court terme afin d'obtenir des prévisions instantanées d'un indicateur quantitatif, l'indice de production. L'objectif est d'améliorer le ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/728450723264
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers with number 1996/3.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:stiaaa:1996/3-en

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    Cited by:
    1. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.

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