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A Comparative Analysis of Health Forecasting Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Astolfi

    (OECD)

  • Luca Lorenzoni

    (OECD)

  • Jillian Oderkirk

    (OECD)

Abstract

Concerns about health expenditure growth and its long-term sustainability have stimulated the development of health expenditure forecasting models in many OECD countries. This comparative analysis reviewed 25 models that were developed by, or used for, policy analysis by OECD member countries and other international organisations...

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Astolfi & Luca Lorenzoni & Jillian Oderkirk, 2012. "A Comparative Analysis of Health Forecasting Methods," OECD Health Working Papers 59, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaad:59-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k912j389bf0-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2015. "Intégrer les dépenses de santé dans un modèle de microsimulation dynamique : le cas des dépenses de soins de ville," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 211-234.
    2. Colombier, Carsten, 2012. "Healthcare expenditure projections up to 2060," MPRA Paper 104919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vincenzo Rebba, 2014. "The Long-Term Sustainability Of European Health Care Systems," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0191, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Del Vecchio, Mario & Fenech, Lorenzo & Prenestini, Anna, 2015. "Private health care expenditure and quality in Beveridge systems: Cross-regional differences in the Italian NHS," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 356-366.
    5. Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Daejung Kim & Dana Goldman & Tadeja Gracner & Andrea Piano Mortari & Bryan Tysinger, 2021. "The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 11-29, November.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & García-Rodríguez, Abián & Hill, Leonie, 2022. "Projections of workforce requirements for public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2019–2035: a regional analysis based on the hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS147, June.
    8. Zeynep Ceylan & Abdulkadir Atalan, 2021. "Estimation of healthcare expenditure per capita of Turkey using artificial intelligence techniques with genetic algorithm‐based feature selection," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 279-290, March.
    9. World Bank, 2015. "Bulgaria Health Financing," World Bank Publications - Reports 22964, The World Bank Group.
    10. Miszczyńska Katarzyna M. & Miszczyński Piotr M., 2020. "Inpatient Costs in the Perspective of Polish Health Policy: Scenario Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 43-56, December.
    11. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2014. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France," Sciences Po publications 28, Sciences Po.
    12. DRITSAKIS, Nikolaos & KLAZOGLOU, Paraskevi, 2019. "Time Series Analysis using ARIMA Models: An Approach to Forecasting Health Expenditure in USA," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(1), pages 77-106.
    13. Robert D. Lieberthal, 2016. "Hedging Medical Spending Growth: An Adaptive Expectations Approach," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 57-64, August.
    14. Proksch, Dorian & Busch-Casler, Julia & Haberstroh, Marcus Max & Pinkwart, Andreas, 2019. "National health innovation systems: Clustering the OECD countries by innovative output in healthcare using a multi indicator approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 169-179.
    15. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    16. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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