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What happened to jobs at high risk of automation?

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Georgieff
  • Anna Milanez

Abstract

This study looks at what happened to jobs at risk of automation over the past decade and across 21 countries.There is no support for net job destruction at the broad country level. All countries experienced employment growth over the past decade. Within countries, however, employment growth has been much lower in jobs at high risk of automation (6%) than in jobs at low risk (18%). Low-educated workers were more concentrated in high-risk occupations in 2012 and have become even more concentrated in these occupations since then. In spite of this, the low growth in jobs in high-risk occupations has not led to a drop in the employment rate of low-educated workers relative to that of other education groups. This is largely because the number of low-educated workers has fallen in line with the demand for these workers.Going forward, however, the risk of automation is increasingly falling on low-educated workers and the COVID-19 crisis may have accelerated automation, as companies reduce reliance on human labour and contact between workers, or re-shore some production.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Georgieff & Anna Milanez, 2021. "What happened to jobs at high risk of automation?," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 255, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:255-en
    DOI: 10.1787/10bc97f4-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev. Boris, 2022. "Robots, Meaning, and Self-Determination," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1191, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Edward Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2021. "Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(12), pages 2195-2217, December.
    3. Bürgisser, Reto, 2023. "Policy Responses to Technological Change in the Workplace," SocArXiv kwxn2, Center for Open Science.
    4. Haapanala, Henri & Marx, Ive & Parolin, Zachary, 2022. "Robots and Unions: The Moderating Effect of Organised Labour on Technological Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 15080, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Casas, Pablo & Román, Concepción, 2023. "Early retired or automatized? Evidence from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    6. Capello, Roberta & Lenzi, Camilla & Perucca, Giovanni, 2022. "The modern Solow paradox. In search for explanations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 166-180.
    7. Andrea Horváthová & Michal Hrnčiar & Eva Rievajová, 2022. "Changes in the skills of the workforce for future development of the labor market in the Slovak Republic," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(4), pages 212-224, June.
    8. Jean-Philippe Deranty & Thomas Corbin, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences," Papers 2204.00419, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; job stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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