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Indonesia: Growth Performance and Policy Challenges

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  • Luiz de Mello

Abstract

Indonesia’s growth performance is improving, following a slow recovery from the 1997-98 financial crisis. Investment is picking up, despite considerable business-climate obstacles to entrepreneurship. Unemployment remains high, and labour informality is pervasive. Fiscal policy has been conducted responsibly and in an increasingly decentralised manner. Monetary policy is now carried out within a fully-fledged inflation-targeting framework. This paper argues that the main barriers to raising the economy’s growth potential are to be found on the supply side of the economy. Indonesia will need to improve the business environment and to make better use of labour inputs to put the economy on a higher growth trajectory. The country’s income gap relative to the OECD is sizeable, and several years of sustained growth will be needed to eliminate it. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia). Indonésie : Performances économiques et enjeux de l'action publique Les résultats de l’Indonésie sur le front de la croissance s’améliorent, amélioration qui s’inscrit dans le prolongement d’une phase de lente reprise après la crise financière de 1997-98. L’investissement suit une pente ascendante, malgré un climat des affaires très peu porteur. Le chômage demeure élevé et l’emploi dans le secteur informel très largement répandu. La politique budgétaire est conduite de façon responsable et aussi plus décentralisée. La politique monétaire s’articule désormais autour d’un dispositif de ciblage de l’inflation. D’après ce document, les principaux obstacles au relèvement du potentiel de croissance de l’économie indonésienne se situent du côté de l’offre. L’Indonésie va devoir s’efforcer d’offrir aux entrepreneurs des conditions d’ensemble plus propices au développement de leurs activités et de mieux utiliser le facteur travail pour mettre son économie sur une trajectoire de croissance plus prometteuse. L’écart de revenu par rapport aux pays de l’OCDE n’est pas négligeable et plusieurs années de croissance soutenue seront nécessaires pour le combler. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Évaluation économique de l’OCDE de l’Indonésie, 2008 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/indonesie).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 637.

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Date of creation: 22 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:637-en

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Keywords: macroeconomic policies; Indonesia; structural reforms; growth; Indonésie; croissance; réforme structurelle; politique macro-économique;

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