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Policies to Improve Turkey's Resilience to Financial Market Shocks

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  • Anne-Marie Brook
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    Abstract

    Since the crisis of 2001, an impressive package of fiscal consolidation and institutional reform has created a strong foundation for economic growth. As a result, GDP growth has been strong and stable, inflation has fallen, and the public debt burden has been significantly reduced. Yet the current account deficit is large, exchange rate movements have been volatile, and the recent increase in inflation and rising levels of private sector external debt draw attention to Turkey?s vulnerabilities and to the need for additional policies to contain risks. This paper summarises the vulnerabilities of the Turkish economy and the steps that can be taken to improve macroeconomic resilience to shocks. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). Les politiques pour renforcer la résilience de la Turquie aux chocs émanant des marchés financiers Depuis la crise de 2001, un remarquable programme d'assainissement économique et de réforme institutionnelle a créé de robustes fondations pour la croissance économique. En conséquence, l'expansion du PIB a été forte et stable, l'inflation a décru et le fardeau de la dette publique a été nettement allégé. Cependant, le déficit de la balance courante est élevé, les fluctuations du taux de change sont irrégulières et l'accélération récente de l'inflation comme la montée de l'endettement attirent l'attention sur les points vulnérables de la Turquie et sur la nécessité de prendre de nouvelles initiatives pour contenir les risques. Ce document recense les points vulnérables de l'économie turque et présente les mesures susceptibles d'améliorer la résilience macroéconomique aux chocs. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Turquie 2006 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie)

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/365034647173
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 528.

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    Date of creation: 29 Nov 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:528-en

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    Keywords: shocks; resilience; Turkey; monetary policy; fiscal policy; debt sustainability; politique fiscale; politique monétaire; échanges sud-sud; durabilité de dette;

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