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China's March to Prosperity: Reforms to Avoid the Middle-income Trap

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  • Vincent Koen
  • Richard Herd
  • Sam Hill

Abstract

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to sustain vigorous growth and improve the well-being of most citizens, renewed reform momentum is required in a number of areas. The following ones are discussed in this paper: financial sector liberalisation; strengthening competition in markets for goods and services; education, research and innovation. Progress is also needed in other areas, notably in fostering more socially-inclusive forms of urbanisation and more environmentally-friendly growth. En marche pour la prospérité : Réformer pour poursuivre le rattrapage en Chine La Chine est bien placée pour ne pas rester un pays à revenu intermédiaire et continuer à converger vers les économies les plus avancées, même si la croissance est vraisemblablement amenée à ralentir, passant d’un rythme à deux chiffres pendant la première décennie de ce millénaire à environ 7% à l’horizon 2020. Toutefois, le maintien d’une croissance vigoureuse et améliorant le bien-être de la majorité des citoyens nécessite une accélération des réformes dans un certain nombre de domaines. Sont passés en revue dans ce document : la libéralisation du secteur financier ; renforcer la concurrence sur les marchés des biens et services ; l’éducation, la recherche et l’innovation. Des progrès sont également requis dans d’autres domaines, notamment pour promouvoir des formes d’urbanisation socialement plus inclusives et une croissance plus respectueuse de l’environnement.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 1093.

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Date of creation: 12 Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1093-en

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Keywords: economic growth; productivity; education; innovation; convergence; catching-up; research and development; patents; living standards; China; credit; urbanisation; cities; business climate; intellectual property rights; renminbi; foreign exchange; international migration; investment; competition; development; financial sector; shadow banking; convergence; innovations; migration interne; renminbi; système bancaire parallèle; recherche et développement; droits de propriété intellectuelle; villes; réserves de change; Chine; climat des affaires; niveau de vie; urbanisation; crédit; brevets; rattrapage; concurrence; éducation; secteur financier; développement; investissement; croissance économique; productivité;

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