World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses
AbstractThis study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China), as a result of continuing economic growth and development and the effect of a lower levels of global wheat stocks in recent years. A further scenario extends the analysis of the role of stocks in price volatility by examining some effects of a hypothetical international buffer stockholding scheme to stabilise international wheat prices. Each scenario was undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model and the stochastic baseline as reported in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat markets in recent years. However the increase in market volatility arising from economic development and income growth is likely to occur gradually, while the moderating effect of larger stocks may only be fleeting. The stylised wheat buffer stock scheme with a price band may lead to slightly lower market volatility under highly specific conditions and constraining assumptions. These, however, have proven difficult to achieve and sustain in practice, as observed from past attempts to implement such schemes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers with number 59.
Date of creation: 19 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
simulation; scenarios; stochastic simulations; wheat; price; buffer stocks; volatility; variability;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-12-06 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2012-12-06 (Confederation of Independent States)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.