Prior research has established that consumption falls significantly at retirement. What is not known is the extent to which this fall is anticipated during the working years. Do working households expect such a large fall in consumption upon retirement, or are they taken by surprise? Using data from a new survey, we show that many working households do expect a considerable fall in consumption when they retire. In fact, those who are already retired report significantly smaller falls in consumption than are expected by those who are still working. We show that participation in the stock market plays a dominant role in explaining the gap between expectations and outcomes, indicating that much of the gap is a result of unexpected stock market appreciation. The survey produces new insights into the high level of uncertainty in the period leading up to retirement, and the surprises that may lie in store when households actually retire.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
8735.
Length: Date of creation: Jan 2002 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8735
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Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 1999.
"Doing It Now or Later,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
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John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy & Tom Tyler, 2004.
"Measuring Self-Control,"
NBER Working Papers
10514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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