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When Is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?

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  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper: 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending; and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the United States. The pattern of response of claims on emerging markets to U.S. conditions differs across banks of different sizes and across emerging market regions. Moreover, unlike U.S. bank claims on industrialized countries, we find that claims on emerging markets are not highly sensitive to local country GDP and interest rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8209.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Publication status: published as When Is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile? , Linda S. Goldberg. in Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets , Edwards and Frankel. 2002
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8209

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  1. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael Klein, 1996. "Foreign direct investment, trade, and real exchange rate linkages in developing countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 73-100.
  2. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
  3. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
  4. David E. Palmer, 2000. "U.S. bank exposure to emerging-market countries during recent financial crises," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 81-96.
  5. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. B. Gerard Dages & Linda Goldberg & Daniel Kinney, 2000. "Foreign and domestic bank participation in emerging markets: lessons from Mexico and Argentina," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 17-36.
  7. Diana Hancock and James A. Wilcox., 1998. "The "Credit Crunch" and the Availability of Credit to Small Business," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-282, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
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