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When Is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?

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Linda S. Goldberg

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Abstract

Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper: 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending; and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the United States. The pattern of response of claims on emerging markets to U.S. conditions differs across banks of different sizes and across emerging market regions. Moreover, unlike U.S. bank claims on industrialized countries, we find that claims on emerging markets are not highly sensitive to local country GDP and interest rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8209.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8209

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Diana Hancock and James A. Wilcox., 1998. "The "Credit Crunch" and the Availability of Credit to Small Business," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-282, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. B. Gerard Dages & Linda Goldberg & Daniel Kinney, 2000. "Foreign and domestic bank participation in emerging markets: lessons from Mexico and Argentina," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 17-36. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Real Exchange Rate Linkages in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ralph de Haas & Ilko Naaborg, 2005. "Internal Capital Markets in Multinational Banks: Implications for European Transition Countries," DNB Working Papers 051, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. De Haas, Ralph & Naaborg, Ilko, 2006. "Foreign banks in transition countries. To whom do they lend and how are they financed?," MPRA Paper 6320, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Powell, Andrew & Hollar, Ivanna Vladkova, 2002. "Banking on foreigners : the behavior of international Bank lending to Latin America, 1985-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2893, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Liebig, Thilo & Porath, Daniel & di Mauro, Beatrice Weder & Wedow, Michael, 2004. "How will Basel II affect bank lending to emerging markets? An analysis based on German bank level data," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jennifer S. Crystal & B. Gerard Dages & Linda S. Goldberg, 2001. "Does foreign ownership contribute to sounder banks in emerging markets? the Latin American experience," Staff Reports 137, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Honohan, Patrick, 2002. "Banking policy and macroeconomic stability - an exploration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2856, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2003. "Foreign Banks and Credit Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: Friends or Foes? A Panel Data Analysis," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-04, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Francisco F. Vázquez & Marco Arena & Carmen Reinhart, 2007. "The Lending Channel in Emerging Economies: Are Foreign Banks Different?," IMF Working Papers 07/48, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Clarke, George R. G. & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2001. "Does foreign bank penetration reduce access to credit in developing countries"evidence from asking borrowers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2716, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Walid Hejazi & Eric Santor, 2005. "Degree of Internationalization and Performance: An Analysis of Canadian Banks," Working Papers 05-32, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Liebig, Thilo & Porath, Daniel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Wedow, Michael, 2005. "Basel II and Bank Lending to Emerging Markets: Micro Evidence from German Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 5163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller & Paul A. Natke, 2003. "Do Foreign Bank Operations Provide a Stabilizing Influence in Korea?," Working papers 2004-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Ralph de Haas & Ilko Naaborg, 2005. "Foreign Banks in Transition Economies: Small Business Lending and Internal Capital Markets," International Finance 0504004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2003. "Foreign Banks and Credit Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Analysis," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 109, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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