The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S
AbstractThis paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the retirement system. It should reduce the saving rate, and the composition of output will change. By themselves, these changes seem manageable. However, the direct effects of aging are completely dominated by the projected increases in medical expenditures. Although medical costs interact with aging, most of the increases are not related to aging. Even the moderately high forecast of medical spending will require that all increases in output between now and 2020 be devoted to the consumption of medical services, allowing no increase in any other component of consumption.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4601.
Date of creation: Dec 1993
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, Michael D. Hurd and Naohiro Yashiro, eds., pp. 39-57, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997).
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael D. Hurd, 1992.
"Wealth Depletion and Life-Cycle Consumption by the Elderly,"
in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 135-162
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd, 1990. "Wealth Depletion and Life Cycle Consumption by the Elderly," NBER Working Papers 3472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean-Louis Guérin & Julien Genet & Loïc Cadiou, 2002. "Évolutions démographiques et marché du travail : des liens complexes parfois contradictoires," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 139-156.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.