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The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S

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  • Michael D. Hurd

Abstract

This paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the retirement system. It should reduce the saving rate, and the composition of output will change. By themselves, these changes seem manageable. However, the direct effects of aging are completely dominated by the projected increases in medical expenditures. Although medical costs interact with aging, most of the increases are not related to aging. Even the moderately high forecast of medical spending will require that all increases in output between now and 2020 be devoted to the consumption of medical services, allowing no increase in any other component of consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4601.

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Date of creation: Dec 1993
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Publication status: published as The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, Michael D. Hurd and Naohiro Yashiro, eds., pp. 39-57, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4601

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  1. Michael D. Hurd, 1992. "Wealth Depletion and Life-Cycle Consumption by the Elderly," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 135-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Louis Guérin & Julien Genet & Loïc Cadiou, 2002. "Évolutions démographiques et marché du travail : des liens complexes parfois contradictoires," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 139-156.

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