Did Criminal Activity Increase During the 1980s? Comparisons Across Data Sources
AbstractThere is a widely held belief that the level of serious criminal activity increased during the 1980s. particularly among the urban underclass, This increase has been mentioned as both a cause and consequence of the increasingly poor labor market prospects of less skilled workers. Significant increases in both Federal and State incarceration rates would seem to support this view. However. data from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) suggests only a mild increase in crime over this period, while the National Crime Survey (NCS) actually depicts lower levels of criminal activity. This paper carefully analyzes data from all three sources in an attempt to understand the nature of the series and to come to an informed opinion regarding the apparent differences in their trends. What we discover is that the large increase in the incarceration rate is attributable primarily to an increase in the likelihood of incarceration given arrest. During the latter part of the 1980s a dramatic increase in the number of arrests and incarcerations for drug law violations also played an important role. The increase in drug related activity was not registered by either the UCR or NCS because neither series measures the incidence of victimless crime.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4431.
Date of creation: Aug 1993
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as SSQ, Vol. 78, no. 3 (September 1997): 725-739.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-01-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2000-01-07 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-LAW-2000-01-07 (Law & Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1996.
"Why Do So Many Young American Men Commit Crimes and What Might We Do about It?,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-42, Winter.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1996. "Why Do So Many Young American Men Commit Crimes and What Might We Do About It?," NBER Working Papers 5451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.