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Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”

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Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro
  • Davin Chor

Abstract

Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern of US participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of partner countries, products, and modes, with a focus on the last five years (2017-2022). The available data point to a looming “great reallocation” in supply chain activity: Direct US sourcing from China has decreased, with low-wage locations (principally: Vietnam) and nearshoring/friendshoring alternatives (notably: Mexico) gaining in import share. The production line positioning of the US’ imports has also become more upstream, which is indicative of some reshoring of production stages. We sound several cautionary notes over the policies that have set this reallocation in motion: It is unclear if these measures will reduce US dependence on supply chains linked to China, and there are moreover already signs that prices of imports from Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31661
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    Cited by:

    1. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2023. "Hidden exposure: measuring US supply chain reliance," Bank of England working papers 1052, Bank of England.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang, 2023. "Global political ties and the global financial cycle," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Trends in Chinese value chains 2018-2022," BOFIT Policy Briefs 14/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Jason Dunn & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Decoupling Where it Matters? US Imports from China in Critical Sectors," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 1, pages 1-3, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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