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Cohort Effects on Expected Co-Movement

Author

Listed:
  • William N. Goetzmann
  • Akiko Watanabe
  • Masahiro Watanabe

Abstract

The covariance of asset returns with economic states of the world is a fundamental input to asset pricing models. Using a semi-annual survey of forecasts by a panel of U.S. economists over more than 70 years, we infer forecaster beliefs about covariance between the S&P index and macro-economic factors. We find evidence that life-experience was a significant determinant of beliefs about the co-movement of inflation and stock returns

Suggested Citation

  • William N. Goetzmann & Akiko Watanabe & Masahiro Watanabe, 2022. "Cohort Effects on Expected Co-Movement," NBER Working Papers 29949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29949
    Note: AP
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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