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Trade Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods of estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 29672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29672
    Note: ITI
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    2. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    4. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
    5. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Kiel Working Papers 2248, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04239322, HAL.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of Aid-for-Trade Flows on Investment-Oriented Remittance Flows," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-36, February.
    8. Zhao, Xinwei & Mi, Xianhua & Ma, Chaoqun & Peng, Geng, 2023. "Measuring trade rule uncertainty and its impacts on the commodity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who Is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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