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Demand Estimation with Infrequent Purchases and Small Market Sizes

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Olivia R. Natan
  • Hayden Parsley
  • Timothy Schwieg
  • Kevin R. Williams

Abstract

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data as well as a measure of market sizes or consumer arrivals. After presenting simulation studies, we demonstrate the method in an empirical application of air travel demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Hortaçsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Demand Estimation with Infrequent Purchases and Small Market Sizes," NBER Working Papers 29530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29530
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2312R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2022.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

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