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Memory and Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Bordalo
  • John J. Conlon
  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Spencer Yongwook Kwon
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

People often estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that an insurable risk will materialize or that an Irish person has red hair, by retrieving experiences from memory. We present a model of this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of conflicting empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued vs. neglect of non-cued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, as well as over vs. underreaction to information in different situations. The model makes new predictions on how the content of a hypothesis (not just its objective probability) affects probability assessments by shaping the ease of recall. We experimentally evaluate these predictions and find strong experimental support.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Bordalo & John J. Conlon & Nicola Gennaioli & Spencer Yongwook Kwon & Andrei Shleifer, 2021. "Memory and Probability," NBER Working Papers 29273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29273
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 339, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Luca Braghieri, 2023. "Biased Decoding and the Foundations of Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series 10432, CESifo.
    3. Matteo Bizzarri & Daniele d'Arienzo, 2023. "The social value of overreaction to information," CSEF Working Papers 690, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    4. Pedro Bordalo & John Conlon & Nicola Gennaioli & Spencer Kwon & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "How People Use Statistics," Working Papers 699, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Benson, Alan & Lepage, Louis-Pierre, 2023. "Learning to Discriminate on the Job," Working Paper Series 10/2023, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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