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Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Mary Amiti
  • Sang Hoon Kong
  • David Weinstein

Abstract

This paper develops a method of using financial data to understand the expected impact of trade policy on welfare and other real variables when the policy has heterogeneous and uncertain impacts on firms. We embed a firm-level specific factors model in a consumption capital asset pricing model to map expected cash-flow movements into expected movements in productivity, wages, and welfare. Using our framework, we find that the U.S.-China trade war caused increases in uncertainty and large declines in U.S. stock prices, expected cash flows, and expected productivity. We estimate that the expected decline in U.S. welfare is 4.9 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2021. "Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 28758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28758
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    Cited by:

    1. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Alan Feng & Haishi Li & Yulin Wang, 2023. "We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10402, CESifo.
    3. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Albagli, Elías, 2022. "Trade wars and asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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