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Do Proxies for Informed Trading Measure Informed Trading? Evidence from Illegal Insider Trades

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  • Kenneth R. Ahern

Abstract

This paper exploits hand-collected data on illegal insider trades to test whether standard illiquidity measures can detect informed trading. Controlling for unobserved cross-sectional and time-series variation, sampling bias, and strategic timing of insider trades, I find that only absolute order imbalance and the negative autocorrelation of order flows are statistically and economically robust predictors of insider trading. However, this result only holds for short-lived information. When information is long-lived, none of the measures of illiquidity I consider detect informed trading, including bid-ask spreads, Kyle's lambda, and Amihud illiquidity. These results suggest that standard measures of illiquidity have limited applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth R. Ahern, 2018. "Do Proxies for Informed Trading Measure Informed Trading? Evidence from Illegal Insider Trades," NBER Working Papers 24297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24297
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Betzer, André & Gider, Jasmin & Limbach, Peter, 2022. "Do financial advisors matter for M&A pre-announcement returns?," CFR Working Papers 22-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    3. Bohmann, Marc & Michayluk, David & Patel, Vinay & Walsh, Kathleen, 2019. "Liquidity and earnings in event studies: Does data granularity matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 118-131.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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