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Finite Lifetimes and the Crowding Out Effects of Budget Deficits

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James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

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Abstract

This note explores the sensitivity of the short-run savings effects of government deficits to assumptions about household planning horizons. Using a lifecycle simulation model, we show that even though deficit policies shift sizable tax burdens to future generations, individuals live long enough to make the assumption of an infinite horizon a good approximation for analyzing the short-run savings effects. In practice, periods of debt accumulation such as that in the United States during World War II are reversed sufficiently rapidly to make their short-run effects on consumption and national savings relatively small.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1955.

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Date of creation: Jun 1986
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Publication status: published as Poterba, James M. and Lawrence H. Summers. "Finite Lifetimes and the Effectof Budget Deficits on National Saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol . 20, September 1987, pp 369-392.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1955

Note: EFG ME PE
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  1. Barsky, Robert B & Mankiw, N Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1986. "Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 676-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Leonardo Leiderman & Assaf Razin, 1989. "Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model," NBER Working Papers 2258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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