The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001-2011: A Comparative Historical Approach
AbstractThis paper examines the interwar housing cycle in comparison to what transpired in the United States between 2001 and 2011. The 1920s experienced a boom in construction and prolonged retardation in building in the 1930s, resulting in a swing in residential construction’s share of GDP, and its absolute volume, that was larger than what has taken place in the 2000s. In contrast, there was relatively little sustained movement in the real price of housing between 1919 and 1941, and the up and down price movements were remarkably modest, certainly in comparison with more recent experience. The paper documents the higher degree of housing leverage in 2001-2011. And it documents a rate of foreclosure on residential housing post 2006 that is likely higher than during the 1930s. It concludes that balance sheet problems resulting from a prior residential housing boom pose greater obstacles to recovery today than they did in the interwar period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18796.
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001–2012: A Comparative Historical Perspective , Alexander J. Field. in Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective , White, Snowden, and Fishback. 2014
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Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2013-02-16 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2013-02-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2013-02-16 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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