Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households
AbstractDespite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior, stock ownership by households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to the investigation of this puzzle, recent research has elicited the expectations of stock market returns by individuals. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on stock ownership. On average stock market expectations are much more pessimistic about gains than the historical record of actual gains. Expectations are heterogeneous, and they are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16464.
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Michael Hurd & Maarten Van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2011. "Stock market expectations of Dutch households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 416-436, 04.
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Other versions of this item:
- Michael Hurd & Maarten van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," DNB Working Papers 228, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Hurd, Michael & Van Rooij, Marten & Winter, Joachim, 2010. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," MEA discussion paper series 10206, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Hurd, Michael & Rooij, Maarten van & Winter, Joachim, 2011. "Stock market expectations of dutch households," Munich Reprints in Economics 19458, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
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