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The Lock-In Effect of the Capital Gains Tax: Some Time Series Evidence

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  • Joel Slemrod

Abstract

This study presents time-series evidence indicating that capital gains taxation reduces the realization of capital gains. The "lock-in" effect is detectable once we divide individuals into categories on the basis of how much recent capital gains tax in- creases have affected them. Since the tax law changes, those individeals who are affected have realized significantly ldss capital gains relative to those not affected. This analysis, in `ddition to evidence fpom cross-sectional research reported in Feldstein and Yitzhaki (1978) and Feldstein, Slemrod and Qitzhaki (1978),indicates that estimates of the tax revenue change resulting from a reduction in capital gains taxation based on the assumption of unchanged realized gains may be misleading.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0257.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0257.

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Date of creation: Jul 1978
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Publication status: published as Tax Notes, Vol. VII, No. 6, pp. 134-135, (August 1978). (NOTE: Reprint 147 is based on BOTH this Working Paper - 0257- and Working Paper 0250.)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0257

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Cited by:
  1. Joel Slemrod & William Shobe, 1990. "The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains Realizations: Evidence from a Panel of Taxpayers," NBER Working Papers 3237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Feldstein & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1982. "Are High Income Individuals Better Stock Market Investors?," NBER Working Papers 0948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Daniel J. Kovenock & Michael Rothschild, 1985. "Notes on the Effect of Capital Gains Taxation on Non-Austrian Assets," NBER Working Papers 1568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lawrence B. Lindsey, 1985. "Taxpayer Behavior and the Distribution of the 1982 Tax Cut," NBER Working Papers 1760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lawrence B. Lindsey, 1985. "Estimating the Revenue Maximizing Top Personal Tax Rate," NBER Working Papers 1761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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