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La mobilité d’emploi et des bas salaires sur le marché du travail thaïlandais. Un modèle probit multinomial à régimes endogènes

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  • Jongkon Kumlaï

    (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)

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    Abstract

    L’objectif de cette étude consiste à mettre en évidence la relation complexe entre les mobilités professionnelle et salariale dans un secteur à bas salaires, afin d’appréhender l’instabilité chronique du salaire, principale sources d’inégalité salariale. Pour dépasser les limites méthodologiques de l’hétérogénéité, un modèle probit multinomial à régimes endogènes est considéré, pour lequel les estimations sont convergentes, sans biais et axiomatiquement efficientes. Les enquêtes socio-économiques de panel, effectuées entre 2005 et 2007, permettent d’appréhender le fonctionnement dynamique du marché du travail urbain en Thaïlande. Les résultats montrent que le modèle de correction des effets endogènes est plus pertinent que celui de sélection exogène, car la majorité des paramètres des fonctions de gains semblent être sous-estimés. L’étude montre qu’il existe une corrélation positive entre le changement d’emploi et le bas salaire. Ainsi, les employés à bas salaires sont plus susceptibles de changer d’emploi, un résultat statistiquement confirmé par la significativité du coefficient de corrélation. Ensuite, il s’agit de savoir si la mobilité d’emploi à bas salaires est profitable aux employés mobiles de ce secteur. Les pertes salariales sont de l’ordre de 4,3 pour cent pour les personnes mobiles à bas salaires. Les personnes plus touchées par ces pertes en termes monétaires englobent les plus instruits, les travailleurs ayant une ancienneté importante, les individus ayant une longue durée de chômage, les personnes exerçant un travail à temps plein, et ceux qui travaillent dans les grandes entreprises. L’ampleur des coûts d’opportunité supportés par les personnes à bas salaires exige des programmes d’action spécifiques, afin de minimiser les effets négatifs de ces phénomènes. The main purpose of this study consists in highlighting a complex relation between the professional mobility and the wage change in a low wage sector. Moreover, we try to bring answers to the persistent wage instability within this group using an analysis of wage mobility. To take into account the specific technical limits of the unobserved heterogeneity, we consider a probit multinomial endogenous switching approach, instead of using the linear model. The socio-economic panel data, collected between 2005 and 2007, enables us to carry out an empirical analysis leading to show the dynamic of the urban labor market in Thailand. Thus, several observations directly drive to the main conclusion according to which the endogenous selection model is more relevant than that of exogenous transformation. In fact, the majority of parameters from the wage functions seem to be underestimated under the linear approach. Therefore, it is technically accurate to adopt the relevant multinomial switching model. The fundamental result from this study links to the fact that there is a positive correlation between the job mobility and the low wages: the low wage employees are more likely to perform a high job change, shown by the significant level of the correlation parameter of errors terms. Moreover, since the wage penalty from job mobility under exogenous model seems to be relatively low, it is particularly high along the lines of the endogenous approach. In this case, the wage losses are estimated about 4.3 percent for the low wage mover referred to stayers at the same sector. Most people implied in these wage losses include the employees with high educated level, the prime workers, those who have more tenure from the last job, those who come from the long spell of unemployment, those who have a full-time job and particularly those who work within a big companies. The extent of the wage penalties calls upon the specific programs of public policies in order to minimize the negative effects on wage instability in this specific sector.(Full text in french)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 144.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:144

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