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A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs

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  • Chiara Pederzoli
  • Costanza Torricelli

Abstract

In the light of the fundamental role played by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries including Italy and of the specific treatment of this issue within the Basel II regulation, the aim of this work is to build a default prediction model for the Italian SMEs. Specifically, we develop a logit model based on financial ratios: using the AIDA database, we focus the attention on a specific region in Italy, Emilia Romagna, where SMEs represent the firms’ majority . We find that a parsimonious model based on only four explanatory variables fits well the default data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0022, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:0022
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    22. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2008. "Assessing and measuring the equity gap and the equity requirements for innovative SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0006, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default prediction; SMEs; Basel II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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