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Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: New evidence across the financial crisis

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  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

Recent years witnessed commodity prices increases which have fostered research-works on their predictability and a renewed interest of practitioners and policy makers. The objective of this paper is to test the predictive ability of futures prices on the underlying spot prices by taking corn, which is one of the most important agricultural commodities in terms of trading volumes and for its role in the dietary regime of many countries. We consider the corn futures on the CBOT in the period May 1998-December 2011 so as to extend previous studies on this market and to assess a possible effect of the financial crisis. Our results do not emphasize a role for the latter and, although we do not find evidence of efficiency and unbiasedness, the futures corn price turns out to be the best predictor of the spot price if compared with most used alternatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi" in its series Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) with number 13091.

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Length: pages 33
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:13091

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Keywords: futures prices; corn futures; efficiency; unbiasedness;

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References

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  11. Gianfranco Gianfelice & Giuseppe Marotta & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "A liquidity risk index as a regulatory tool for systemically important banks? An empirical assessment across two financial crises," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13071, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
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  24. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2011. "Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 11031, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  25. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
  26. Giuseppe Marotta, 2008. "Lending interest rate pass-through in the euro area. A data-driven tale," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
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Cited by:
  1. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  2. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2013. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13102, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".

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