Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach
AbstractIn microsimulation literature a limited number of models are provided with a module aimed at analyzing and projecting the evolution of private wealth over time. However, this issue appears crucial in order to get a comprehensive evaluation of the likely distributional effects of institutional reforms adopted to cope with population ageing. In this work we describe the implementation in the Italian dynamic micro simulation model CAPP_DYN of a new module in which household’s savings and asset allocation are modelled. In particular, our efforts are addressed at accounting for some possible behavioural responses to pension reforms in household savings. To this end, we rely on an approximate life cycle structural framework for estimating saving behaviour, while adopting the traditional stochastic micro simulation approach for assets allocation. In line with Ando and Nicoletti Altimari (2004), we emphasize the role of lifetime economic resources in households’ consumption decisions, yet we further account for internal habit formation and subjective expectations on pension outcomes in the econometric stage. In addition, we model intergenerational transfers of private wealth in a probabilistic fashion. Despite possible saving responses to pension reforms, simulated results for the period 2008-2050 suggest a rising dispersion in saving propensity and intergenerational transfers received are largely responsible for the predicted increase in disposable income inequality in the next decades which, differently from the recent past, will also affect the group of elderly.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica in its series Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) with number 0073.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision: Nov 2010
household consumption; habit formation; pension expectations; social security; intergenerational transfers; income and wealth distribution; microsimulation;
Other versions of this item:
- Simone Tedeschi & Elena Pisano & Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2013. "Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 76-122.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-06-18 (European Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2010-06-18 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-MAC-2010-06-18 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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