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Automation trends in Portugal: implications in productivity and employment

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Candeias

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Nuno Boavida

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • António Brandão Moniz

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

Recent developments in automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are leading to a wave of innovation in organizational design and changes in the workplace. Techno-optimists even named it the ‘second machine age’, arguing that it now involves the substitution of the human brain. Other authors see this as just a continuation of previous ICT developments. Potentially, automation and AI can have significant technical, economic, and social implications in firms. The paper will answer the question: what are the implications on industrial productivity and employment in the automotive sector with the recent automation trends, including AI, in Portugal? Our approach used mixed methods to conduct statistical analyses of relevant databases and interviews with experts on R&D projects related to automation and AI implementation. Results suggest that automation can have widespread adoption in the short term in the automotive sector, but AI technologies will take more time to be adopted. Findings show that adoption of automation and AI increases productivity in firms and is dephased in time with employment implications. Investments in automation are not substituting operators but rather changing work organization. Thus, negative effects about technology and unemployment were not substantiated by our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Candeias & Nuno Boavida & António Brandão Moniz, 2022. "Automation trends in Portugal: implications in productivity and employment," GEE Papers 0165, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0165
    as

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    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt//RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_165.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    2. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial Intelligence; automation; productivity; employment; automotive industry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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