Updating Inflation Expectations
AbstractThis paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity to update inflation expectations changes substantially over time and is related to the quantity and the quality of news.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201216.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
inflation expectation formation; time-varying parameters; Bayesian methods disagreement; media coverage; stochastic volatility.;
Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-05-02 (Monetary Economics)
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- Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena, 2013.
"Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata,"
Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order
79908, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201301, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Michael J. Lamla & Lena Dräger, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," KOF Working papers 13-329, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2012. "Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 807-810.
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