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Superb Forecasting or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Economist on Thailand before the Asian Crisis

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Author Info
David Hojman () (University of Liverpool)
Robert F. K. Wynn () (University of Liverpool)
Abstract

Using a model of co-movement between East Asian stockmarkets, we show that the determinants of the Thai share price index changed following an article in The Economist, 24 August 1996. In the absence of other 'news', it may be more realistic to interpret this as a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, rather than one of good quality forecasting. Cointegrating regressions are estimated for non-stationary, I(1) series in levels. We examine the sensitivity of the regression results to changes in the dummy variable, to switching from linear to logarithmic specifications, and to explicit consideration of possible seasonality.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Liverpool Management School in its series Research Papers with number 2002_03.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:liv:livedp:2002_03

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Postal: Management School University of Liverpool, Chatham Street, Liverpool, L69 7ZH, Great Britain
Phone: +44(0)151 795 3108
Fax: +44(0)151 795 3004
Web page: http://www.liv.ac.uk/management/
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Related research
Keywords: Stockmarket; Co-movement; Self-fulfilling prophecy; Asian crisis; Thailand; The Economist;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-19.


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