Currency Concerns under Uncertainty: The Case of China
AbstractThe recent declines in China's financial account balance ended the "twin surplus" era and led to a modest decline in the stock of official reserves, which reflects a reversal in expectations for the Chinese currency. Negative balances, which have been visible in China's financial balances since the last quarter of 2011, have heightened fears/anxiety in markets. These deficits stand in sharp contrast to the typical financial account surplus that existed until 2010. The announcement in September 2011 by Chinese monetary authorities of a "two-way floating" RMB in the foreign exchange market has unsettled market expectations and has led to a sharp fall in the financial balance. The latter brought a change in the expectations regarding the RMB-USD exchange rate. This change was reflected in the drop in foreign exchange assets, which was caused by a jump in short-term trade credits to prepay (for imports) in dollars, a rise in dollar advances from banks, and a withdrawal of dollar deposits. These changes have, of late, been a cause of concern relating to the future of China's economic relations vis-a-vis trading and financial partners, which include the United States. The experience of China, in a changing world beset with deregulation and with speculation affecting her external balance in recent years, provides further confirmation of John Maynard Keynes's observation, in 1937, regarding uncertainty in markets: "About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know."
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_761.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
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China; Financial Balances; Official Reserves; Twin Surpluses; Rebalancing; Expectations; Internationalization; Managed Exchange Rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-04-27 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2013-04-27 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-04-27 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-PKE-2013-04-27 (Post Keynesian Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-04-27 (Transition Economics)
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